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FWIW, Vulkan goes back pretty far on hardware support, and this is MC Java which they already bumped to require newer JVM and OpenGL 4+ a while back. I am not aware of any devices running modern MC Java-edition that aren't Vulkan compliant, even the various Pis and so on have Vulkan.
Not to say there may be none, and that they want to gather data is very valid first step, but I would be shocked if its more than a handful of device types that would be dropped.
Afaik they bumped the minimum version but don't actually use new features yet, so effectively veeery old hardware still runs Minecraft. Not sure though.
But Nvidia Fermi, which is the latest Nvidia arch to not support Vulkan, is not that uncommon on low end hardware I fear. Thank Nvidia for the eternal rebranding of gf108 even into the 700 and 800 series. Keep in mind they are probably thinking of third world countries too when doing theese evaluations.
Intel Haswell (4th) has incomplete Vulkan support.
So they'd probably still be cutting quite a bunch of hardware. Not saying that they won't though.