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You are correct, but let us have some hope.
No, he is not correct all, he’s just lying https://twitter.com/lawrenceyang/status/1541462868968689664
Your post does nothing to invalidate his point. What he's saying is that the 2x production rampup would very much have been accounted for in the original estimates. Which is why we didn't suddenly see a bunch of "After Q3" people get shifted to Q3 or anything after the announcement...
He literally says that starting next week valve will ship 2x more steam decks than last week, when the last batch shipped 1x, just to avoid confusion.
Maybe there will be people shifted to Q3 starting July, when Q2 is officially over?
Yeah, they most likely expected this production ramp up and took it into account when they made their estimates. They may have underpromised to account for uncertainty, but probably not that much.
Also, someone asked if that means his after-Q3 place is going to be moved up, to which he got the response that he has now ire chances to get his deck this year (around December) than next June 2023, when all of us after-Q3 were expecting to get our decks.
So we don’t expect anything less December, but that’s great news nevertheless
I expected Q4 for almost everyone with current Valve estimates. Worst case scenario - Q1 next year. As far as I understand the spreadsheet, it shows that EU queue will slow down significantly in Q3, and UK/US queues will speed up. By the end of Q3 all regions and all queues will be around the beginning of August 2021. So far I observed everywhere that the processed time grows exponentially, after passing these first two weeks the rest should be going really fast. If EU queue didn't slow down and continued with the same place as in Q2, Valve would have finished 2021 orders in that queue somewhere by the mid-August.