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At the same time people are failing to not extrapolate to an insane degree. A common claim tossed around a lot is "well maybe it can't take our jobs yet but soon it could because it's going to make leaps and bounds quickly!"
AKA people are lumping in pure sci-fi with what actually exists, or will exist shortly.
Folks also tend to extrapolate erroneously. I.e. going around with the FUD of "it's going to replace us soon(tm)!!!"
About as much as "asking StackOverflow to write your code" is efficient, just with a shorter feedback loop.
(That's not a dig at SO by the way. Despite people's exaggerations it's a legit site for software devs to use. The before times with forums all over the place was much, much worse.)
Your fatal mistake is presuming the core cost of development is "how fast can I type code in, because the faster I type it the lower the development cost." This concept of "cheaper = better regardless of outcome" is only practiced by folks that have no idea how to direct development. And those people exist! Ask any developer who's had to go into a code base developed by a cheap team overseas who promises "quick + good + cheap" (guess which one of those qualities falls flat).
I do. It takes prompts and continued conversation and generates code for your particular ask, to a certain degree. Even if it needs a little tweaking, it's pretty awesome!
But to pretend you can do the same thing to put together an entire application, alongside things like client communication, getting said details, and a whole truckload of other stuff a developer has to do, it hasn't even scraped the surface yet.
The folly most here make is assuming a dev's primary job is to write code into the computer. I.e. "devs are just code monkeys."
It's not even going to do that. At the moment, at best, it shortens the StackOverflow feedback loop. It ain't gonna be making commits or pushes or doing any of the other dozens of tasks that comes with the coding aspect. Not even close.
The literal thousands of comments insinuating the software development job will be obsolete in the coming years or decades show this statement to be false.
Capitalism is pretty big on growth right? So I think cutting salaries without cutting production is great for a bit, but then without another major paradigm shift, more people will be needed to continue growing.
More like "Make more efficient so that the same amount of people can create more (or better) output". That's what generally happens in the long run with most efficiency improvements.
Can't replace the people that maintain it. Menial jobs will just change.